油脂油料：申万期货品种策略日报--20260317

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For protein meal, night - session soybean and rapeseed meal prices trended weakly. Due to the Brazil soybean harvest progress and the impact of Sino - US trade negotiations falling short of expectations, the market is worried about US soybean export prospects. The overnight US soybean futures price hit the limit down, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will follow the US soybean to run weakly in the short term [3]. - For oils, night - session oil prices trended weakly. The MPOB monthly report showed that Malaysia's February palm oil production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month, exports decreased by 22.48% month - on - month, imports increased by 136% month - on - month, and inventory decreased by 3.94% month - on - month. The slow de - stocking of palm oil and geopolitical conflicts leading to rising international oil prices may cause Indonesia to restrict palm oil exports, increasing palm oil prices. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8716, 10010, and 9948 respectively, with price changes of 26, 242, and 127, and price change rates of 0.30%, 2.48%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3071, 2482, and 8844, with price changes of - 57, - 31, and 26, and price change rates of - 1.82%, - 1.23%, and 0.29% respectively [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are 18, 32, and - 178 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 20, 32, and 47. The current values of ratios - spreads such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09 are - 58, 46, and 587 respectively, with corresponding previous values of - 56, 34, and 595 [2]. International Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4525 (ringgit/ton), 1155 (cents/bushel), 63.94 (cents/pound), and 313 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 26.0, - 68.5, - 3.5, and - 9.7, and price change rates of 0.58%, - 5.60%, - 5.18%, and - 3.01% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8970 and 8910 respectively, with price change rates of 0.11% and - 0.11%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 10040, with a price change rate of 2.03%. The current spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 10470 and 10220, with price change rates of 1.16% and 1.19% respectively. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal are 3290 and 3300, with price change rates of - 2.95% and - 3.79%. The current spot prices of Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal are 2680 and 2660, with price change rates of - 3.94% and - 4.32%. The current spot prices of Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 7200 and 7350, with price change rates of 0.00% [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 254, 30, and 522 respectively. The current spot basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 219, 198, and - 1016 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, and 580 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 166, - 346, 34, - 221, 453, and 296 respectively, with corresponding previous values of - 401, - 309, 71, - 194, 742, and 305 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 25,714, 823, 1,125, 36,982, 2,261, and 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 25,714, 800, 1,125, 36,982, 2,311, and 900 [2]. Industry Information - As of March 13, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state in the 2025/26 season reached 96.42% of the planting area, higher than 89.15% a week ago and the historical average of 90.64%. As of March 14, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4% [3].