Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-17 04:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, with specific recommendations for various companies [2][14]. Core Insights - The domestic supply contraction is the main driver for the upward shift in coal prices, supported by overseas factors and increased demand from coal chemical industries [6][8]. - The report forecasts that coal prices will stabilize and fluctuate within the range of 800-1000 RMB/ton, with limited adjustment potential due to low inventory and rising non-electric demand [8][9]. - The coal chemical sector is expected to see significant growth, with coal consumption projected to reach 304 million tons in 2023, increasing to 362 million tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 11.5% [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Performance and Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Jinko Coal, Shanxi Coal International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Huayang Co., and Yanzhou Coal [14]. 2. Industry leaders with stable performance: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [14]. 3. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [14]. - The report highlights that the coal sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 5.4% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 0.7% [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a significant increase in coal demand due to high European gas prices and the restart of coal-fired power plants in Europe, which has led to a rise in international coal prices [6][8]. - Domestic coal supply is expected to continue contracting, with approximately 200 million tons of capacity still pending replacement and environmental approval, posing a risk of further reductions [8][9]. Coal Chemical Industry Growth - The report emphasizes the rapid growth of the coal chemical sector, with ongoing projects expected to consume approximately 243 million tons of coal, and potential future projects could double this demand [9][10]. - The increase in chemical product prices and the geopolitical focus on energy security are expected to accelerate the approval and construction of new coal chemical projects [9][10]. Price Trends and Inventory - As of March 13, coal prices at Qinhuangdao Port were reported at 731 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 14 RMB/ton, while prices in various production areas showed mixed trends [10][12]. - The report indicates that the average daily coal consumption in power plants has decreased, leading to an increase in available days of coal supply [12].