名创优品：2025年业绩符合指引，2026年1-2月中美市场同店表现靓丽-20260317

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company exceeded revenue guidance for Q4 2025, with adjusted operating profit meeting expectations. The same-store sales growth in China and the U.S. for January-February 2026 was notably strong [2][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023A: 11,473 million RMB - 2024A: 16,994 million RMB - 2025E: 21,445 million RMB (up 26% YoY) - 2026E: 25,141 million RMB (up 17.2% YoY) - 2027E: 29,155 million RMB (up 16% YoY) [4] - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1,769 million RMB - 2024A: 2,618 million RMB - 2025E: 1,321 million RMB (down 49.5% YoY) - 2026E: 2,459 million RMB (up 86.1% YoY) - 2027E: 3,437 million RMB (up 39.8% YoY) [4] - The company achieved Q4 2025 revenue of approximately 62.5-62.55 billion RMB, a 33% increase YoY, surpassing the guidance of 25-30% [9] Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 29.05-50.40 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 40,716 million HKD [6] - The report anticipates a target price adjustment to 40.55 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 14.95 HKD [9] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing improvements in domestic and overseas operations, with contributions from TOP TOY and strategic upgrades in large stores and IP [9] - In the first two months of 2026, the company's GMV in mainland China grew over 25%, while the U.S. market saw a GMV increase of over 50% [9]