聚酯周报2026/3/10：PTA&MEG：地缘继续发酵-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - The core influence recently is geopolitics. Attention should be paid to the impact and persistence of the Strait logistics. In the short - term, it follows the cost. The supply and demand of PTA change little, with an increase in supply restart, and the supply - demand side has limited driving force. With the tightening of crude oil supply and refinery load reduction, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to be strong [5]. PX - Geopolitics affects the domestic supply and import expectations of PX to decline. The demand improves from March, and the balance expectation gradually improves. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical risks, and consider positive spreads on pullbacks [6]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Geopolitics supports a possible decline in ethylene glycol imports. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based plants increases, and the supply improves. The current inventory of ethylene glycol is high. It is expected that domestic maintenance will increase and imports will improve significantly. Consider low - buying after short - term pullbacks or focus on positive spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Downstream Demand - As of March 5, downstream weaving is gradually resuming work. The loads of texturing, looms, and dyeing have rebounded to 62%, 58%, and 69% respectively. With the rise of raw materials, downstream stocking has increased, and the overall stocking is about 20 days [11]. - As of March 6, the polyester load is around 84.1%. The polyester cash - flow has recovered, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The future start - up assessment shows that after the Spring Festival, polyester factories are gradually restarting. The loads in February and March are estimated to be 79% and 90% respectively. The subsequent recovery rhythm depends on the progress of large filament manufacturers [14][39]. PTA - Device Changes: Domestic devices are operating as planned. New materials are running at full capacity. Dushan's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton devices have restarted. Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton device has increased its load to 80%, and Yihua's 3 million - ton device is under maintenance [44]. - Inventory: As of March 6, the social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has increased to 2.623 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons. PTA factory inventory has increased, and the inventory of downstream polyester factories is not high [48]. - Balance Sheet: In March, the supply restarts and the demand is recovering. The supply - demand balance is loose, and the supply - demand side of PTA has general driving force. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and geopolitics [53]. PX - Market Situation: The US gasoline inventory has slightly declined from a high level. Geopolitics has affected the Asian refined - oil supply, and the gasoline cracking spread has strengthened. The Asian aromatics is in short supply due to geopolitics, and the US - Asia arbitrage spread has compressed [69][75]. - Device Changes: As of March 5, the domestic PX load has dropped to 90.4%, and the Asian PX load remains at 83.2%. Some domestic refineries have reduced their loads preventively. Overseas, some devices are under maintenance or have announced force majeure [80]. - Balance Sheet: The domestic refineries are reducing their loads, and the import is expected to decline. The demand is gradually improving, and the balance has been gradually improving since March. Pay attention to geopolitical changes and consider low - buying and positive spreads on pullbacks [83]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Device Changes: Since March, the maintenance of ethylene - based devices has increased. Some coal - chemical devices are restarting or delaying maintenance. Overseas, some devices are under maintenance or have reduced their loads [100][113]. - Inventory: As of March 9, the inventory at the main ports in East China is about 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The expected arrival volume is not high, and the inventory may remain stable or decline next week [122]. - Balance Sheet: The port inventory is at a high level. Since March, the maintenance has increased, and the expected arrival volume has declined. The balance has improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitics [127].