GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-17 04:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in duty-free sales in Hainan, driven by the recovery of mid-to-high-end consumption and the effective implementation of new duty-free policies [2] - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in performance, with projected revenues and net profits showing fluctuations but an overall positive trend in the coming years [4][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 67,540 million in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 24.1%. However, a decline of 16.4% is expected in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 6,714 million in 2023, with a notable increase of 33.5% year-on-year, but a decrease of 36.4% is anticipated in 2024 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.25 yuan in 2023, decreasing to 2.06 yuan in 2024, before recovering to 3.00 yuan by 2027 [4] Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 102.80 yuan [5] - The stock has a market capitalization of 155,516 million, with a 52-week price range of 56.57 to 97.10 yuan [6] Operational Highlights - The report notes a robust increase in duty-free shopping amounts and visitor numbers during the Spring Festival and the Spring Transportation period, indicating a strong recovery in consumer activity [11] - The company plans to acquire DFS's retail operations in the Greater China region, which is expected to enhance its market presence and operational synergies [11]