CAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-17 04:30Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -0.2% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices increased by 0.2% and decreased by -0.5%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -0.4% and 0.3%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 14th in performance[46] New Housing Market - In the week from March 7 to March 13, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%[8] - Cumulative new housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, totaled 2.646 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year[8] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 11.962 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.0%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.623 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 12.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%[15] - Cumulative second-hand housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, amounted to 2.857 million square meters, down 15.3% year-on-year[15] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 13.544 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.7%[15] Inventory and Depletion - The cumulative inventory of new housing in 13 cities was 76.659 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[21] - The new housing depletion cycle in these cities was 25.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 months and a year-on-year increase of 9.3 months[21] Land Market - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1.1901 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 55.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%[38] - The average land price was 941 yuan per square meter, down 16.4% month-on-month and 12.8% year-on-year[38] - Year-to-date cumulative land transaction area as of March 15, 2026, was 20.2622 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include property management: Greentown Service; commercial management: China Resources Vientiane Life; leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7]