海外宏观周报：能源冲击下的美联储决议-20260317

Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, leading to significant volatility in international energy markets[1] - Iran's attack on U.S. military bases in the region has prompted U.S. airstrikes on Iran's key oil export hub, increasing regional security risks[1] - Oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait total approximately 6.7 million barrels per day, representing about 6% of global supply[1][9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at current levels during its upcoming meeting, with only one rate cut anticipated this year according to the dot plot[2] - Rising energy prices complicate the Fed's decision-making, particularly regarding inflation assessments and employment data interpretations[2] - If high oil prices persist, the timing of potential rate cuts may be delayed, although this does not signal the end of the easing cycle[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[10] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[10] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 55.5, slightly above market expectations, with one-year inflation expectations at 3.4%[10][14]