养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing tension in the Middle East has led to a strong upward trend in international crude oil prices, which in turn has driven up the prices of various agricultural products, especially edible oils. The cost of soybean imports in China is expected to rise, and the production forecast for biodiesel from international edible oils is positive, which is beneficial for domestic soybean oil. For different agricultural products, specific market conditions and trading strategies are provided [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Oilseeds: The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to wait and see. Soybean No. 2 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization. The price of soybean oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is recommended to hold long positions after reducing the position. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Proteins: The price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization. The price of rapeseed meal is expected to follow the upward trend, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [12]. - Energy and By - products: The price of corn is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. The price of corn starch is expected to follow the cost of corn and fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - Livestock: The price of live pigs is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. The price of eggs is expected to find the bottom with fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For most varieties, the current recommendation is to wait and see. For the 5 - 9 spread of corn, it is recommended to go short at high prices, and for the 5 - 7 spread of live pigs, it is recommended to hold reverse arbitrage positions [13][14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil [19][20]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [20]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, such as the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn by deep - processing enterprises [21]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market data such as breeding costs, profits, and slaughter data [21][23][24]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a series of charts related to the livestock end (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), which visually show the price trends, inventory changes, and other information of these products [26][35][51]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts of historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [93][95][96]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts showing the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [97][98][100].