2026年1-2月宏观数据：宏观经济保持平稳，物价指数延续回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - environment is better than that in 2025. Although the recovery of the domestic economy cannot be achieved overnight, both the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the overall upward repair trend [3][44]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, mainly due to insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies need to increase support, and the supply side needs to be cleared [44]. - The PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to accelerate from negative to positive under the pull of the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The real estate market is at a critical node of stabilizing and recovering, and its subsequent drag on the macro - economy is expected to be significantly narrowed [3][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI Seasonal Decline - In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points; medium and small - scale enterprises' PMIs were 47.5% and 44.8% respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Among the five sub - indexes of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in production, a decline in market demand, a slight narrowing of the decline in raw material inventory, a slight decline in employment, and a slowdown in supplier delivery time [6]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in February was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity index was 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the service industry business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points. The seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in February has limited symbolic meaning [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI Continued to Improve - In February 2026, the national CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 1.0% month - on - month. The average CPI from January to February increased by 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year. Food and tobacco prices increased by 1.4% year - on - year, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.41 percentage points. Other seven major categories of prices showed five increases and two decreases [10][11]. - In February 2026, the national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The average PPI from January to February decreased by 1.2% compared with the same period of the previous year. In March, the sharp rise in crude oil prices is expected to significantly boost the PPI, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate in 2026 is expected to accelerate from negative to positive [13][15]. 3.3 High Growth in Imports and Exports - From January to February 2026, China's total import and export value was 1.09954 trillion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21%. Exports were 656.578 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%; imports were 442.960 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%; the trade surplus was 213.618 billion US dollars [16]. - From January to February, China's exports to the United States, the European Union, ASEAN countries, and Japan all maintained steady growth. Exports to the United States were further replaced by exports to ASEAN. The real risk of China's foreign trade lies in the increased risk of a US economic recession and the decline in demand caused by the slowdown of the global economic growth rate [21][23]. 3.4 Weak Resident Credit Demand and Decline in M1 Growth Rate - At the end of February 2026, the stock of social financing scale was 451.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The increase in social financing scale in the first two months of 2026 was 9.6 trillion yuan, 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period of the previous year [24][25]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%, with the growth rate remaining the same as in January. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 115.93 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, with the growth rate rebounding by 1 percentage point. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 3.1%, indicating an increase in the degree of currency activation [27]. 3.5 High Growth in Industrial Production, Weak Social Retail, and Positive Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year in real terms and 0.83% month - on - month in February [29]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 8.6079 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Affected by the high base of the previous year and the decline in crude oil prices, the consumption of petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials was weak, dragging down the consumption growth rate. There is still much room for domestic consumption recovery, and further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [29]. - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all rebounded [32]. 3.6 Continued Decline in Real Estate Sales and Downward Trend in the Real Estate Market - From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the sales amount decreased by 20.2% year - on - year. The real estate market continued to cool down [33][35]. - Real estate new construction, construction, and completion also declined further. At the end of February, the inventory of commercial housing for sale increased slightly. The real estate market is at the bottom stage, and with the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline in sales area and amount is gradually narrowing. If strong policies are introduced, it will be conducive to improving market expectations and accelerating the inflection point of the real estate market [36][41]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In January - February 2026, the macro - economy remained stable, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, imports and exports maintained high growth, price indexes continued to rise, M1 and M2 continued to rebound, and industrial added value maintained a high growth rate. However, the growth rate of social retail was weak, and the real estate market was still in a downward trend [44]. - The current constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are mainly due to insufficient domestic effective demand and over - capacity in some industries. In March 2026, the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to accelerate from negative to positive, and the drag of the real estate market on the macro - economy is expected to be significantly narrowed. The macro - environment in 2026 is better than that in 2025 [44]. - The financial market is currently in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment continues to improve. Although full of twists and turns, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2026 are expected to continue the upward repair trend. It is necessary to track the implementation details of subsequent policies, observe the upward strength of prices, and patiently wait for the upward signal of the macro - economy [45].