经济数据为何超预期？

Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, industrial added value increased by 6.3% year-on-year, up from 5.2% in December 2025, primarily driven by exports[5] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) rose by 1.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, a significant recovery from -15.1% in December 2025, with infrastructure investment at 11.4% and manufacturing investment at 3.1%[5][29] - Real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, but the decline narrowed by 6.1 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2025, aligning with seasonal trends[5][36] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales (social zero) grew by 2.8% year-on-year in January-February 2026, compared to 0.9% in December 2025, supported by the Spring Festival and post-real estate cycle consumption[5][20] - Categories such as home appliances and furniture saw significant year-on-year growth, with beverage retail sales increasing by 6.0% and food categories by 10.2%[27][20] Policy Outlook - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is projected at 5.2%, indicating that achieving the annual growth target of 4.5%-5% is feasible with lower average growth rates required in subsequent quarters[42] - The likelihood of new incremental policies being introduced in the short term is low due to reduced growth pressure[42] Risks - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in data[44]