西南期货研究所:早间评论-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current macro data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market for various commodities shows different trends due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [6][9] - Different commodities have different market outlooks and investment strategies, including maintaining caution, waiting and seeing, looking for low - position buying opportunities, etc. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.43%, 0.11%, 0.08%, and 0.04% respectively. The central bank carried out 137.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 16, with a net investment of 88.8 billion yuan [5] - Economic Data: From January to February, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3%, service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8%. Real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% [5] - Outlook: There is still some pressure in the future market, and it is necessary to remain cautious [6][7] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures changed by 0.06%, - 0.26%, - 0.62%, and - 0.21% respectively [8] - Factors Affecting the Market: Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved initial consensus. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, the Iranian situation is highly uncertain, and market volatility is expected to increase significantly [9] - Strategy: Temporarily hold an empty position and wait and see [10] Precious Metals - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,118.34 with a decline of 1.29%, and the silver main contract closed at 20,301 with a decline of 2.97% [11] - Factors Affecting the Market: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the price. But due to the previous sharp rise and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility will increase [11] - Strategy: Keep waiting and seeing [12] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of Tangshan billet is 2980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar is 3130 - 3250 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 - 3280 yuan/ton [13] - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in a downward trend, and rebar demand is decreasing year - on - year. In the medium - term, it is entering the peak demand season. Supply pressure is reduced, and inventory changes are worthy of attention [14] - Strategy: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [14][15] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. PB powder port spot price is 795 yuan/ton, and super special powder is 675 yuan/ton [16] - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. After the key meeting, iron ore demand may expand, but the supply in the first two months increased by 10% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [16] - Strategy: Investors can pay attention to low - position long opportunities and manage positions carefully [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated [18] - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect sentiment. Coking coal supply may increase, and demand is weak. Coke supply is stable, and demand may expand after the key meeting [18] - Strategy: Investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [18][19] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.77% to 6162 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 1.21% to 5872 yuan/ton [20] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The output of ferroalloys is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, but the supply is still loose, and inventory is accumulating [20] - Strategy: Consider taking long - position profit - taking opportunities after a rapid short - term price rebound [22] Crude Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the expansion of the US - Israel - Iran war and the continuous closure of the Strait of Hormuz [23] - Market Data: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased. The Iranian parliament said that Ukraine has become a legitimate target for Iran [23] - Outlook: The increase in net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. Although the Iranian oil export is not affected and the tension between the US and Iran seems to ease, the prospect of global oil supply shortage still exists [24] - Strategy: Temporarily wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25] Polyolefins - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market fluctuated higher, and the Yuyao LLDPE price rose 50 - 150 yuan/ton [26] - Supply - Demand Analysis: In the short term, the contraction of polyolefins is obvious, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.52%. In the long - term, imports may decrease in April, but new domestic and foreign production facilities are planned to be put into operation, and supply pressure will be gradually released. Downstream demand shows the characteristics of "rising start - up but cautious purchasing" [26] - Strategy: Pay attention to long opportunities [27] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.60%, and the price of Shandong mainstream butadiene rubber was adjusted down to 15200 - 15400 yuan/ton [28] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The production cost of butadiene has soared, and some devices are planned for maintenance. The supply of butadiene rubber is high, and demand is in the recovery stage. The cost is seriously inverted, and inventory is turning to destocking [28][29] - Outlook: Strong - side oscillation [30] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.71%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract fell 0.44%. The Shanghai spot whole - latex price was stable at around 16800 yuan/ton [31] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The core driver is the increase in crude oil prices due to the weekend Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which strengthens the substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main production areas are in the low - production season, and demand is in the recovery stage but lower than last year. Inventory is still in the accumulation stage, but the accumulation rate may slow down [31] - Outlook: Strong - side oscillation (supported by substitution demand and low - production season in the short - term, focusing on inventory destocking and demand recovery in the medium - term) [31] PVC - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.09%, and the spot price in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton [32] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The core drivers are the concerns about energy and raw material supply due to overseas geopolitical conflicts and the start of domestic spring demand. The supply capacity utilization rate is high, demand is gradually starting but at a low seasonal level, the cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, and inventory is in the accumulation stage [32][33] - Outlook: Strong - side oscillation [34] Urea - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.32%, and the Shandong Linyi spot price was 1890 yuan/ton [35] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The core drivers are the global urea supply disturbance caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict and domestic spring plowing demand. Supply is stable, demand is released intensively, cost is stable, and inventory is decreasing [35] - Outlook: Oscillate strongly [36] PX - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose 0.47% and fell 3.8% at night [37] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, PX load decreased, downstream polyester and terminal start - up are gradually increasing. Supply may be tightened due to plant shutdowns and spring inspections, and it is expected to enter the destocking channel [37] - Outlook: Oscillate strongly in the short - term, and consider cautious low - position operations, paying attention to oil price changes and situation development [37] PTA - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose 0.32% and fell 3.25% at night. The processing fee rose to around 300 yuan/ton [38] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply load decreased, demand load increased, and the 3 - month supply - demand expectation may improve. The price is mainly affected by the cost side, and the geopolitical situation is uncertain [38] - Strategy: Consider cautious operations, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and oil price changes [38] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 3.31% and fell 2.76% at night [39] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply load decreased, imports are expected to decrease, and inventory is expected to be destocked. The downstream polyester start - up increased, and the geopolitical situation is highly uncertain [39] - Outlook: Pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation and the situation of the Strait, and the subsequent elasticity depends on the spring inspection rhythm and demand fulfillment [39] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract rose 0.94% [40] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply load increased, downstream terminal start - up increased, raw material inventory decreased, and the cost side is strong but there is a risk of high - level correction [40] - Outlook: Trade based on the cost side in the short - term, and pay attention to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose 7.44% [41] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Many bottle - chip manufacturers stopped selling and cut contract volumes, inventory decreased sharply, supply is expected to shrink, demand increased, and the cost side is strong [41] - Outlook: Oscillate strongly following the cost side, with increased volatility, and consider cautious low - position participation, paying attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [41] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1256 yuan/ton, down 1.64% [42] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Soda ash production increased slightly, inventory decreased slightly, downstream demand is average, and the profitability of associated alkali manufacturers improved [42] - Outlook: The fundamental support is not significant, and the market sentiment fluctuates. Pay attention to risk control [43] Glass - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 1102 yuan/ton, down 2.74% [44] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production lines decreased, inventory decreased slightly, demand recovery is slow, and the spot trading atmosphere is weak [44] - Outlook: The long - short game intensifies after the price reaches a relatively high level. Pay attention to position control and follow - up changes in the Middle - East situation [44] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, down 0.62% [45] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased, some manufacturers may have maintenance plans in March, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The long - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may affect overseas production and increase China's export advantage [45][46] - Outlook: Pay attention to overseas device dynamics, export orders, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [46] Pulp - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5232 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [47] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic production may decrease due to maintenance, port inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price of coniferous pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, and the price of broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable [47][48] - Outlook: The downstream demand recovery is slow, and the follow - up to the price increase is insufficient [48] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 1.75% to 159620 yuan/ton [49] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, the global lithium resource balance is being reshaped. Supply may be in a tight balance, and demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Inventory is gradually decreasing [49] - Outlook: The price has strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Pay attention to the follow - up of the Zimbabwean embargo and the US - Iran geopolitical situation [49] Copper - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100190 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [50] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the US dollar is strong, and the macro - level pressure is significant. The mine end is tight, and the supply in March is expected to reach a record high, with high inventory. Downstream demand has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly [50][51] - Outlook: Weak - side oscillation [52] Aluminum - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24970 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina main contract closed at 2989 yuan/ton, up 0.57% [53] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Alumina supply pressure is high, and the cost support is limited. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict affects overseas production, and supply tightening is expected. Domestic downstream consumption has recovered, and inventory changes are different [53] - Outlook: Strong - side operation [54] Zinc - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23880 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [55] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic supply increased, overseas supply is disturbed, demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the actual recovery is uncertain, and inventory is increasing [55][56] - Outlook: Pressured oscillation [57] Lead - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16405 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [58] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The start - up of primary lead enterprises increased, the resumption of secondary lead is slow, and lead - battery enterprises have fully resumed work. However, geopolitical risks affect exports, and inventory is increasing [58] - Outlook: Pressured adjustment [59] Tin - Market Performance: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.43% to 381840 yuan/ton [60] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the supply situation is complex. The supply shortage has eased,