光大期货能化商品日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price shows a wide - range volatile trend due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts and the influence of supply - related news. The market needs to pay attention to whether the conflict directly affects Iranian oil export facilities [1][3]. - The short - term high - and low - sulfur cracking spreads of fuel oil are expected to remain at a high level, and the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side should be noted [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase, with attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on the cost side [3]. - The polyester price shows a high - level wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the resonance of cost - side increase and supply reduction, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol may have a slight correction if there is an expectation of import recovery [5]. - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may further diverge. The butadiene rubber price will fluctuate with the geopolitical situation and oil price, and the natural rubber will face the dual pressures of increased supply and decreased demand [5][7]. - The methanol inventory will enter a downward channel, but the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - The polyolefin market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space, and the follow - up demand growth may be blocked [7][9]. - The PVC price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, the oil price center dropped. The WTI April contract closed down $5.21 to $93.5 per barrel, a decline of 5.28%. The Brent May contract closed down $2.93 to $100.21 per barrel, a decline of 2.84%. SC2604 closed at 712.5 yuan per barrel, down 49.3 yuan per barrel, a decline of 6.47%. The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes, with at least 27 oil tankers waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday. Iraq is working on modifying an oil pipeline to directly export oil to Turkey's Ceyhan Port [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2605) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.81% to 4,848 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2605) rose 2.18% to 5,729 yuan per ton. The market structure of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has strengthened significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz restricts the supply of fuel oil from the Middle East, and the soaring freight rates close the east - west arbitrage window, tightening the supply. The demand from domestic refineries for alternative raw materials and overseas ship refueling is expected to increase [3]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2604) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 10.63% to 4,464 yuan per ton. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the short - term supply of raw materials is expected to be tight. Some major refineries are ensuring the supply of refined oil, so the asphalt production is expected to decrease, and the supply will remain at a low level. The demand in the northern region is expected to increase in April as the temperature warms up [3]. - Polyester: TA605 closed at 6,982 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.69%. EG2605 closed at 4,897 yuan per ton, up 3.55%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 10,180 yuan per ton, up 1.62%. The production of domestic and overseas suppliers has been reduced. The cost increase and supply reduction resonate, while the downstream demand is weak. The ethylene glycol production in Iran has resumed, but the shipping needs further recovery [5]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber (RU2605) rose 105 yuan per ton to 16,870 yuan per ton, NR rose 175 yuan per ton to 13,495 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber (BR) main contract fell 25 yuan per ton to 15,700 yuan per ton. In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber trends may diverge [5][7]. - Methanol: The inventory of methanol will enter a downward channel, and the MTO plant may increase the willingness to resume production. However, the current Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large fluctuations in the market [7]. - Polyolefins: The upstream plant maintenance plans have increased, and the subsequent production is expected to decline. The downstream factory operating load has increased, and the spring demand is being released. The market maintains a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risks push up the cost, squeezing the downstream profit space [7][9]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The PVC price in the East, North, and South China markets has increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, but the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand will gradually recover [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 16, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with March 13, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Treasury Secretary said that Iranian oil tankers are continuously leaving the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has taken a tacit attitude. The IEA has agreed to use 400 million barrels of emergency strategic reserves, and Saudi Arabia has available global inventories. The US President Trump called on countries to help dredge the Strait of Hormuz [12]. - With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is accelerating oil exports through alternative routes. At least 27 oil tankers were waiting at Yanbu Port on Monday, up from 11 on Friday, and Saudi Arabia aims to export up to 5 million barrels of oil per day through this alternative channel [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: There are 19 charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][15][16] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: There are 31 charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are 22 charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [46][48][51] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: There are 12 charts showing the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [62][64][66] - 4.5 Production Profits: There are 4 charts showing the production profits and processing fees of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won many awards and has more than ten years of research experience in the futures derivatives market [76]. - Du Bingqin: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [77]. - Di Yilin: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won many awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [78]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree and a title of intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [79].