光大期货软商品日报-20260317

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Monday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 3.93% to 68.44 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased 0.58% to 15,480 yuan per ton, and the position of the main contract decreased by 13,387 lots to 711,900 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,580 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the U.S. dollar index last night provided some support for cotton prices. The National Development and Reform Commission announced the issuance of 300,000 tons of sliding - scale import quotas for cotton processing. The market should focus on the situation in the Middle East and new cotton planting. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate in the short term and may have some support in the medium to long term [2]. - Sugar: As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, there were 173 sugar mills still operating in India, 27 less than the same period last year, and the cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons year - on - year. The spot price of sugar in different regions has different adjustments. The U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices fell last night, and the raw sugar price dropped from a high. The market should pay attention to the support around 14 cents per pound. The situation in the Gulf region is complex, and the market does not have a clear trend. The domestic sugar market has a bumper harvest, inventory accumulation, and macro - level disturbances. Sugar prices are oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to whether the price can hold at 5,400 yuan per ton and the import data for January and February [2]. Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 spread was - 75, up 20; the main contract basis was 1404, down 58. The spot price in Xinjiang was 16,715 yuan per ton, up 11, and the national spot price was 16,884 yuan per ton, up 7 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 spread was - 34, unchanged; the main contract basis was 8, down 25. The spot price in Nanning was 5,460 yuan per ton, down 10, and in Liuzhou was 5,480 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. Group 4: Market Information - Cotton: On March 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,495, down 11 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 293. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on March 16 were: 16,715 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,889 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,943 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 17,013 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. On March 16, the comprehensive load of yarn was 56.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 16.8, down 0.1; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 60.6, down 0.1; and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 25.1, down 0.1 [4]. - Sugar: On March 16, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,460 yuan per ton, down 10 from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou was 5,480 yuan per ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. Group 5: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin: Research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has participated in major projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the writing of series of books by the China Futures Association. She has won many awards, including the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" in the Futures Daily and Securities Times, the Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2023, and the "Best Chief Futures Analyst for Agricultural and Sideline Products" in the 17th China's Best Futures Analysts Selection in 2024 [20]. - Zhang Linglu: An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in large - scale projects and topics of the China Futures Association and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She has won many awards, including the Senior Senior Analyst of Soda Ash and the Senior Analyst of Urea at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2023, and the Best Industrial Futures Analyst from 2024 - 2025 [21]. - Sun Chengzhen: An analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He has participated in the writing of relevant topics of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and has published articles on futures and spot websites. He won the Senior Analyst of Textiles at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 and the Best Agricultural and Sideline Products Futures Analyst in 2025 [22].