有色商品日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and rose, with the import window for domestic refined copper opening. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran continue to impact the market, causing concerns about global economic growth and putting pressure on copper demand and liquidity. Short - term support levels are in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. Light - position long positions can be considered if inventory accumulation weakens and spot discounts narrow; otherwise, continue to observe if geopolitical conflicts expand [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas alumina raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a "rush for aluminum" in the overseas market. The domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation and slow demand start, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices are rising due to supply shortages and increased shipping costs, but the large increase in primary nickel inventory poses significant pressure. Despite the expected supplementary quota in July, considering the rising cost, short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered, while being vigilant about macro - level impacts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, copper prices rose. Geopolitical factors, economic data, and inventory changes all affect the copper market. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 1,708 tons to 535,028 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 7,935 tons to 322,998 tons. Short - term support is at 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina rose 0.57% to 2,989 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.48% to 24,970 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy fell 0.13% to 23,685 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure, and the domestic market is waiting for a turning point [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.95% to 17,485 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.37% to 136,900 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 744 tons to 283,914 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 845 tons to 57,307 tons. Nickel ore prices are rising, but primary nickel inventory is increasing. Short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On March 16, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 99,155 yuan/ton, down 1,345 yuan from March 13. LME and COMEX inventories changed, and social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons [1][4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead was 16,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from March 13. Warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 535 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 9,220 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 32,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 45,000 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and social inventory increased by 2,953 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.51 million tons [7]. - Tin: The main settlement price decreased by 3.3%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 851 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both with significant achievements and media exposure [49][50].