碳酸锂日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On March 16, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 1.75% to 159,620 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped 2,500 yuan/ton to 156,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped 2,500 yuan/ton to 153,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 1,500 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 10 tons to 36,393 tons [2]. - Recently, all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have suspended lithium concentrate exports, while mining operations remain normal. The local lithium mining enterprises are applying for new export licenses, and the approval process is expected to take 2 - 4 weeks. This suspension is for policy compliance to regulate lithium resource exports and promote local value - added processing. The short - term export restriction does not affect the production end, and exports are expected to gradually resume after new licenses are approved [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased 836 tons to 23,426 tons. In March, the lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 28% to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 406 tons to 16,924 tons, and the inventory increased 208 tons to 18,019 tons; the weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased 5,050 tons to 101,725 tons, and the inventory increased 5,251 tons to 105,780 tons. In March, the production of ternary materials is expected to increase 19% to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase 24% to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased 414 tons to 98,959 tons [2]. - The weekly inventory destocking meets expectations, and the total inventory turnover days decreased to 27.8 days. The decrease in inventory level and the increasing stocking coefficient of downstream enterprises may support the price. However, the current market has no obvious contradictions, so the short - term price will fluctuate. A more definite positive factor is needed to break through the previous high, but investors can consider bargain - hunting [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures and Spot Prices: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose, while the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [2]. - Policy Impact: Zimbabwe suspended lithium concentrate exports for policy compliance, with no short - term impact on production and expected resumption after license approval [2]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Supply and demand both increased, with an expected increase in production in March. The social inventory decreased, with different trends in downstream, other links, and upstream [2]. - Market Outlook: The short - term price will fluctuate, and there may be a chance for bargain - hunting [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The main contract and continuous contract closing prices of lithium carbonate futures increased, while the price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased [4]. - Lithium Ore: The prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum ore decreased [4]. - Lithium Salts: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [4]. - Price Spreads: Some price spreads changed, such as the increase in the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [4]. - Precursor and Cathode Materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials decreased slightly [4]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained stable, with a slight increase in the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum ore from 2024 - 2026 [5][8]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 - 2026 [11][13]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the trends of various price spreads, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between domestic and international prices [17][19]. - Precursor and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [25][27]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [31][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 - March 2026 [38][41]. - Production Costs: A chart presents the production profit trends of different raw materials for lithium carbonate production from 2024 - 2026 [42].