工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260317

1. Research Views - On the 16th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,685 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.23%. The position decreased by 1,623 lots to 237,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,313 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest delivery product rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 115 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 41,705 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.03%. The position increased by 189 lots to 34,646 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material dropped to 46,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest delivery product also fell to 46,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 4,295 yuan/ton [2]. - The hindered resumption of production in Xinjiang and the small - scale resumption in the southwest of industrial silicon formed a structural hedge. The increase in petroleum coke raw materials and Xinjiang State Grid electricity prices provided cost support. Downstream rigid - demand stocking was sufficient, but the willingness for incremental stocking was insufficient. The industrial silicon futures market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot price stabilized at the bottom [2]. - The actual transactions of polysilicon continued to move towards lower prices. In March, some large factories had plans to start production one after another, and the supply contraction situation came to an end. The newly - added inventory continued to be transferred to warehouse receipts to relieve the pressure of factory inventory backlog. The downstream silicon wafer procurement willingness was low, and polysilicon would mainly experience bottom - range shock adjustment in the short term. The market was waiting for the signal of the implementation of the anti - involution policy for photovoltaics after the Two Sessions to see if it could trigger the release of bullish sentiment [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring 2.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,675 yuan/ton on March 13th to 8,685 yuan/ton on March 16th, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest delivery product price remained at 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 125 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,976. The inventory at Huangpu Port increased by 5,700 tons to 109,880 tons, at Tianjin Port increased by 1,000 tons to 74,000 tons, at Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The factory inventory increased by 14,300 tons to 269,150 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 15,300 tons to 452,650 tons [4]. 2.2 Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 42,040 yuan/ton on March 13th to 41,705 yuan/ton on March 16th, a decrease of 335 yuan/ton. The near - month contract decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 41,750 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged [4]. - The current lowest delivery product price remained at 46,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 3,960 yuan/ton to 4,295 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,690. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 320,700 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 357,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 357,000 tons [4]. 2.3 Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 14,300 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7][10]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16]. 3.3 Inventory - The charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory and inventory changes of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][19][22]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][29]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award of Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [32]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times and an outstanding new analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 [32]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times [33].