黑色商品日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the short - term rebar futures expected to oscillate strongly. The iron ore market is influenced by multiple factors, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also expected to oscillate, with attention to the impact of the Middle East situation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures fluctuated narrowly. The spot price was stable with some increases, and the trading volume recovered. The investment growth rate rebounded at a low level, and the crude steel output remained low. The short - term rebar futures are expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price declined. The supply from Australia increased, and that from Brazil remained stable. The demand is expected to recover. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. The supply side maintained normal production, and the demand side had a warming market sentiment. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. The cost of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand from steel mills was weak. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened. The cost was supported, the supply and demand were relatively stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention to the Middle East situation [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened. The cost was stable, the supply increased slightly, the demand improved, and the inventory was at a low level. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention to the geopolitical conflict [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - It shows the contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as the profit and spreads between different commodities [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: It presents the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2021 to 2026 [6][7][10][11][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [15][16][20][22]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It presents the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][25][26][30][31][33][34][36]. - 3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads between different varieties such as the volume - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [37][38][39][40]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: It presents the historical profits of the rebar main contract on the disk, long - process calculation, and short - process calculation [42][44][46]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [48][49].