房地产行业快评：2026 小阳春观察：不好不坏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][45]. Core Insights - The current high-frequency data is at a critical point between "good" and "bad," lacking sufficient evidence to determine future trends, which does not change the bearish outlook but also does not constitute a bullish barrier [4][5]. - The report suggests that the real estate industry is likely at a bottoming phase, with a low probability of a panic-style decline similar to Q4 2025, even if data weakens [5][39]. - Short-term, the real estate sector's high-frequency data does not support a consensus on future price trends, making significant price fluctuations in real estate stocks unlikely [5][41]. - Long-term, the valuation levels in the real estate sector are considered reasonable, reflecting pessimistic expectations from policies and fundamentals, with potential for recovery if the decline in second-hand housing prices narrows [5][41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Overall price performance is weaker than the same period last year, but certain cities have seen price rebounds [4]. - Transaction volumes are stable, with an increasing proportion of low-priced second-hand homes [4]. - Buyer sentiment remains cautious, while seller panic is diminishing [4]. Transaction Data - As of March 15, 2026, the 7-day moving average transaction area for new homes in 30 cities is down 7% year-on-year, with significant variances across major cities [6]. - The cumulative transaction area for new homes in 30 cities is 11.26 million square meters, down 22% year-on-year [6]. - The 7-day moving average transaction volume for second-hand homes in 18 cities is down 15% year-on-year, with cumulative transactions down 8% [8]. Price Trends - The average price of second-hand homes in 44 cities is 13,208 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, which is better than the same period in the past two years [17]. - In core cities, low-priced properties remain the mainstay of transactions, with significant proportions of sales occurring below certain price thresholds [24]. Buyer and Seller Sentiment - Buyers are transitioning from extreme caution to a more rational approach, showing readiness to act when conditions are favorable [39]. - Sellers are adjusting expectations, with a decrease in listing volumes and narrowing negotiation spaces, particularly in major cities [39].