新能源及有色金属日报：几内亚矿端政策预期扰动盘面价格-20260317

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Aluminum - Cautiously bullish; Alumina - Neutral; Aluminum alloy - Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage - Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views - Overseas supply of electrolytic aluminum has new changes, with some factories in Africa and the Middle East reducing production or suspending production. The Middle East situation remains tense, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long run, while domestic demand recovery needs attention. The alumina market is pessimistic about long - term prices due to over - supply, and there are many short - term disturbances. [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Aluminum Spot: On March 16, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,790 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,640 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,760 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Aluminum Futures: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 25,130 yuan/ton and closed at 25,170 yuan/ton on March 16, 2026, down 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 361,102 lots and the position was 309,830 lots [2]. - Aluminum Inventory: As of March 16, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 387,729 tons, an increase of 25,761 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 442,825 tons, a decrease of 2,475 tons from the previous trading day [2]. - Alumina Spot Price: On March 16, 2026, the alumina price in Shanxi was 2,690 yuan/ton, Shandong was 2,655 yuan/ton, Henan was 2,705 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 2,715 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 298 US dollars/ton [2]. - Alumina Futures: On March 16, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,956 yuan/ton and closed at 2,965 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.09% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 808,529 lots and the position was 267,270 lots [2]. - Aluminum Alloy Price: On March 16, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 24,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Aluminum Alloy Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 58,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 74,600 tons [4]. - Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit: The theoretical total cost was 23,980 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 720 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: Overseas, some electrolytic aluminum plants in Mozambique, Qatar, and Bahrain have reduced or suspended production. The Middle East situation affects raw material and energy supply, and overseas inventory is declining, which is bullish for aluminum prices. Domestically, attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery, and long - term aluminum prices are expected to rise [6]. - Alumina: The spot market has some transactions, but the long - term over - supply situation makes the market pessimistic about future prices. There are many disturbances in the ore end, and the inventory is increasing. Policy impact needs attention [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum is cautiously bullish, alumina is neutral, and aluminum alloy is cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Neutral [8]