下游观望采购，豆粕震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the粕类 market is cautiously bullish [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [7] Core Views - For the粕类 market, due to the slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the unexpected arrival rhythm, and the continuous tightening of the supply side, combined with the rising shipping costs and increasing import soybean costs, the domestic粕类 prices are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [3] - For the corn market, feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The corn price in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. The supply increase of substitute grains may impact corn prices, and attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of substitute grains [6] Market News and Important Data 粕类 - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕 2605 contract was 3071 yuan/ton, a change of - 57 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕 2605 contract was 2482 yuan/ton, a change of - 109 yuan/ton (- 4.21%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 299, a change of - 3 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3290 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 219, a change of + 17 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3380 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 309, a change of + 17 from the previous day; in Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 28, a change of + 9 from the previous day [1] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2379 yuan/ton, a change of - 7 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2743 yuan/ton, a change of + 14 yuan/ton (+ 0.51%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of C05 + 26, a change of - 8 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS05 + 57, a change of - 14 from the previous day [4] Recent Market Information - For soybeans, on March 13, Patria AgroNegocios said that Brazilian farmers had harvested 57.43% of the expected soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season, lower than 66.03% in the same period last year but in line with the five - year average of 57.88%. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company predicted that the 2025/26 soybean production was 177.85 million tons, slightly down from the February estimate of 177.98 million tons. As of the week of March 11, 76% of soybean crops were rated normal to good, 72% of planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [2] - For corn, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics expected the total corn planting area in 2026 to be 22.7958 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month's estimate and 2.4% from the previous year, and the total corn production was estimated to be 134.2794 million tons, an increase of 0.3% from the previous month's estimate but a decrease of 5.3% from the previous year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company expected the 2025/26 corn production to be 138.27 million tons, lower than the previous month's estimate of 138.45 million tons and a 2.0% decrease from the previous year [4] Market Analysis 粕类 - In the domestic market, the slow soybean harvest progress in South America and the unexpected arrival rhythm have led to concerns about short - term soybean supply. Although the downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, the supply side is continuously tightening, and combined with rising shipping costs, the import soybean costs are increasing, which provides strong support for domestic粕类 prices. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [3] Corn - Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The corn price in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. Some substitute grains have diverted certain demand. Information about wheat and aged rice auctions has emerged, and attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of substitute grains, as the increase in substitute grain supply may impact corn prices [6] Strategies - For the粕类 market, the strategy is to be cautiously bullish [4] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [7]