聚烯烃日报：供应收缩预期仍存，聚烯烃盘面延续上行-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyolefin market is rising mainly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by geopolitical factors and the intensifying expectation of supply - side contraction, which drives up the price of olefins. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a further increase in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemicals. For PE, the supply is tightening due to more shutdowns and production cuts in domestic refineries and weak import arrivals, while the demand side has a mixed situation with rising demand for mulch film but cautious downstream procurement. For PP, the supply - side contraction is more obvious, and the demand side also shows cautious procurement due to price fluctuations and cost pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 8,677 yuan/ton (+261), and that of the PP main contract is 8,857 yuan/ton (+254). LL North China spot is 8,400 yuan/ton (+200), LL East China spot is 8,550 yuan/ton (+150), and PP East China spot is 8,800 yuan/ton (+200). LL North China basis is - 277 yuan/ton (-61), LL East China basis is - 127 yuan/ton (-111), and PP East China basis is - 57 yuan/ton (-54) [1]. - Upstream Supply: PE开工率 is 82.4% (-4.5%), and PP开工率 is 70.1% (-4.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: PE oil - based production profit is - 962.0 yuan/ton (-297.4), PP oil - based production profit is - 1002.0 yuan/ton (-297.4), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 1475.4 yuan/ton (+255.0) [1]. - Imports and Exports: LL import profit is - 721.8 yuan/ton (-100.0), PP import profit is - 1265.8 yuan/ton (+500.0), and PP export profit is 103.1 US dollars/ton (-64.4) [1]. - Downstream Demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 26.8% (+8.0%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 43.4% (+3.1%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 40.5% (+2.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 61.3% (+1.7%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The supply is tightening as more domestic refineries are under maintenance or production cuts, and import resources are expected to be weak. The demand side has an overall increase in downstream开工率, but the profit of agricultural film is under pressure due to rising raw material costs, and the increase in开工率 does not meet expectations. The packaging film mainly replenishes inventory on a rigid - demand basis, and downstream procurement is cautious [3]. - PP: The supply - side contraction is more obvious, with more preventive production cuts in upstream enterprises and a continuous increase in the expected maintenance loss in March - April. The PDH device maintenance peak continues due to the tightening of propane supply. The downstream开工率 is gradually rising, but procurement is cautious due to price fluctuations and cost pressure [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging [4]. - Inter - period: Go long on the L05 - 09 and PP05 - 09 spreads at low prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].