储备货源投放，价格稳定

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillations [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and during the critical period of spring plowing supply guarantee and price stability in China, the urea spot price remains stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders actively enter the market to purchase, and spot transactions improve. On the supply side, some gas - based and technological transformation enterprises resume production, increasing the supply. The off - season reserves start to be fully released in March. On the demand side, the green - turning fertilizer application is in progress, the compound fertilizer production starts to pick up, and as it approaches the terminal fertilizer use, the market sentiment improves and the sales volume increases. The melamine market sentiment is good, the price rises, the production starts to pick up, and there is rigid demand for procurement. Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the sentiment in the futures market is strong, driving the improvement of spot transaction sentiment, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp rise in international urea prices, but there is no new news about the current domestic export quota, so the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. Follow - up attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On March 16, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1900 yuan/ton (+11); the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1870 yuan/ton (0); the price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - particle urea in Jiangsu was 1900 yuan/ton (+0); the price of small - block anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0); the basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Henan was - 30 yuan/ton (-11); the basis in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of March 16, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 93.29% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of March 16, 2026, the urea production profit was 335 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - As of March 16, 2026, the export profit was 2331 yuan/ton (+540) [1] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - As of March 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 45.56% (+8.54%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 53.35% (+3.90%); the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 8.06 days (+0.35) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 95.76 million tons (-14.05), and the port sample inventory was 18.90 million tons (-0.10) [1]