氯碱日报：关注乙烯法负荷变动-20260317

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For PVC, since April 1st, export tax rebates have been cancelled, international geopolitical conflicts continue, overseas cracking units are operating at reduced loads, the supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC is tightening, and export expectations are improving with a significant increase in export prices. Domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply limitations, and the subsequent reduction in load is expected to increase. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved due to price increases, and some loads have been increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and there is a certain relief in the pressure of factory and social inventories [3]. - For caustic soda, affected by the continuous international geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali units are expected to reduce their loads due to rising costs, which drives an increase in export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises increases the market's expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The supply - side operating rate has increased slightly and is at a year - on - year high, and the demand - side non - aluminum industries have seen an increase in rigid demand procurement after the holiday. The current supply - demand situation of caustic soda has improved month - on - month [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5849 yuan/ton (+125), the East China basis is - 129 yuan/ton (-75), and the South China basis is - 49 yuan/ton (-75) [1]. - Spot prices: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5800 yuan/ton (+50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 92 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is 267 yuan/ton (+426), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 235 yuan/ton (+48), and the PVC export profit is 136.6 US dollars/ton (+23.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 37.7 tons (-8.1), the social PVC inventory is 63.2 tons (-0.4), the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.89% (+1.48%), the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.00% (-6.24%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 78.49% (-0.93%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 109.2 tons (+20.2) [1]. Market Analysis - The cancellation of export tax rebates, geopolitical conflicts, and the reduction of overseas cracking unit loads have led to a tightening of raw material supply for ethylene - based PVC. Domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply problems. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, and some loads have been increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts, export orders, downstream purchasing rhythms, and unit maintenance dynamics [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [4] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures prices and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2547 yuan/ton (-57), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 416 yuan/ton (+95) [1]. - Spot prices: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 682 yuan/ton (+12), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1220 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1123 yuan/ton (+38), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 408.8 yuan/ton (-201.7), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 756.04 yuan/ton (+127.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 2039.32 yuan/ton (+50.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 53.00 tons (-2.00), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (-0.90), and the caustic soda operating rate is 85.30% (-1.10%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The operating rate of alumina is 82.72% (+0.10%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 50.15% (+7.69%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 90.14% (+0.05%) [2]. Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts have led to an expected reduction in the load of overseas chlor - alkali units, increasing export inquiries for domestic chlor - alkali products. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises has increased the market's expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The supply - side operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand - side non - aluminum industries have seen an increase in rigid demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the actual execution of export orders, the price trend of 32% caustic soda, and the impact of geopolitical conflict changes on the market [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Oscillation [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]