上游供应持续缩量，下游逢低补库

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main reason for the rise in the propylene market is the concern about raw material supply due to geopolitical issues and the intensified expectation of supply contraction, which drives up the prices of olefins. The current low navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the difficulty in reaching an agreement between the US and Iran, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East provide strong support for chemical products. The supply of raw material propane is tight, the profit of PDH plants is deeply in the red, and domestic PDH plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten further. On the demand side, downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices, and the demand for upstream concessions has gradually recovered. In the short term, the supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price support persists before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8,550 yuan/ton (+208), the spot price in East China is 8,350 yuan/ton (+0), the spot price in North China is 8,025 yuan/ton (+25), the basis in East China is -200 yuan/ton (-208), the basis in Shandong is -525 yuan/ton (-183), the operating rate is 71% (-2%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 65 US dollars/ton (-28), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is -9 US dollars/ton (+23), the import profit is -869 yuan/ton (-448), and the in-factory inventory is 44,260 tons (-380) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 31% (+3.98%), and the production profit is 225 yuan/ton (+325); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 77% (-3%), and the production profit is 52 yuan/ton (+270); the operating rate of n-butanol is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 1,138 yuan/ton (-9); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-4%), and the production profit is 514 yuan/ton (+18); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 78% (-2%), and the production profit is 4,573 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 74% (-1%), and the production profit is 146 yuan/ton (-171); the operating rate of phenol-ketone is 87% (-2%), and the production profit is 680 yuan/ton (+75) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The main logic for the rise in the propylene market is the concern about raw material supply due to geopolitical issues and the intensified expectation of supply contraction, which drives up the prices of olefins. Currently, the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely low, the US and Iran are still unable to reach an agreement, and the conflict in the Middle East continues, providing strong support for chemical products. From the perspective of the propylene fundamentals, the supply of raw material propane is tight, the profit of PDH plants is deeply in the red, and domestic PDH plants are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The operating rate of PDH is expected to decline further, and the supply of propylene is expected to tighten again. On the demand side, downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices, and the demand for upstream concessions has gradually recovered. In the short term, the supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price support persists before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]