FICC日报：中国1-2月经济开局良好，滞涨叙事打压金价-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - China's economy had a good start in January - February 2026, and the stagflation narrative suppressed the gold price [1] - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation, which mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up oil - related industries and cause inflation concerns [1] - Focus on China's Two Sessions. During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index recovers after the sessions. The US February non - farm payrolls decreased unexpectedly, and China's economic data shows mixed performance [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [2][3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day "end - of - war" expectation of the US and Israel. The tail - risk has increased sharply, affecting energy and shipping sectors. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven oil - chemical and oil - and - fat sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners. The geopolitical situation remains volatile. There are also events related to Powell's case and the nomination of Wash [1] Attention to China's Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the A - share market has pressure but the decline is limited. After the sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - China's economic data in February shows that the official manufacturing PMI is 49, non - manufacturing PMI is 49.5. Exports and imports in US dollars have double - digit growth. The growth rate of catering and upgraded products leads. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in January - February increases by 6.3%, while real estate investment and sales decline [2] Commodity Market - Short - term commodity fluctuations are mainly dominated by the Iran situation and oil prices. The non - positive correlation between the non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, but there may still be a supply gap [2] - The rise in oil prices drives oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol. Agricultural products' oil - and - fat sector is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black - metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - Go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3] Important News - Trump said the US may quickly reach an agreement with Cuba after resolving the Iran issue [5] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate in January - February is 5.3%, the same as the previous year. In February, the rate is 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month [5] - In January - February, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreases by 13.5% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreases by 20.2% [5] - In February, the year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly - built commercial housing in first - tier cities is 2.2%, and the month - on - month decline in first - tier cities turns flat. The decline in second - and third - tier cities narrows [5] - The US plans to announce the establishment of a "convoy alliance" for the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says it will continue to defend and is willing to talk about the safety of ships passing through the strait [5] - On March 15, China and the US started economic and trade consultations in Paris [2][5]