燃料油日报：市场维持强势，关注俄罗斯供应增量-20260317

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the damage to Middle - East energy facilities. If the Strait is blocked for too long, the contradiction will be more prominent after the consumption of on - land and floating storage inventories. The potential supply increment may come from Russia. Russian refineries are expected to gradually recover by mid - to late March, and there is room for an increase in the supply of refined oil products including fuel oil. Although Russia may offset the supply gap to some extent, the problem can only be substantially alleviated when the Strait resumes navigation [1]. - In terms of trading strategies, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term with high market volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see. There are no strategies for cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 1.81% at 4,848 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 2.18% at 5,729 yuan/ton [1]. - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is strong. The unclear situation in Iran and the long - term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a more prominent supply - demand contradiction. The potential supply increment comes from Russia. After the refinery operating rate in Russia rebounds, there is room for an increase in refined oil supply, which may offset the supply gap to some extent. However, the resumption of navigation in the Strait is necessary for a substantial solution to the problem [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Slightly bullish in the short term, high market volatility, recommended to wait and see [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slightly bullish in the short term, high market volatility, recommended to wait and see [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing prices, spreads, and trading volumes of Singapore fuel oil spot, swaps, and Chinese fuel oil futures, including high - sulfur 380 fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil. The units are mainly US dollars/ton and yuan/ton for prices, and hands for trading volumes [3].