新能源及有色金属日报：下游采购积极性开始增加-20260317

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a cautious and bullish stance for unilateral trading and a neutral stance for arbitrage [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Downstream procurement enthusiasm has started to increase, and the acceptance of the spot market has improved due to the decline in absolute prices, leading to an increase in point - price procurement enthusiasm and a slight repair of spot discounts. However, social inventories are still in a state of accumulation, and downstream consumption is starting to recover. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point in the later stage. The import concentrate TC is still in a slight decline, the import window is currently closed, and domestic smelting profit is acceptable after adding by - products, resulting in high smelting enthusiasm and high rigid demand for concentrates. Coupled with freight disturbances, the concentrate end supports the zinc price. Under the background of high overseas energy costs, the probability of smelting复产 is still low even with rich by - product benefits. In the long run, the overseas consumption is still optimistic without the background of recession trading [1][5] Group 3: Key Data Spot - The LME zinc spot premium is -$42.63 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 280 yuan/ton to 23,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of -110 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 23,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of -80 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 280 yuan/ton to 23,810 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of -100 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On March 16, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,205 yuan/ton, closed at 23,905 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 108,986 lots, and the position was 77,317 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,255 yuan/ton, and the lowest price reached 23,835 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of March 16, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 275,800 tons, a change of 7,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 97,500 tons, a change of -400 tons from the previous trading day [4]