镍矿持续紧张，镍不锈钢震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel and stainless steel is weak but in line with expectations. The macro and policy aspects are the main drivers of price trends. The nickel price is expected to remain in a high - level range - bound state, and the stainless steel price will follow the nickel price and also maintain a volatile trend [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,080 yuan/ton and closed at 136,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 350,916 (-52,020) lots, and the open interest was 208,187 (-3,420) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply is increasing and inventories are rising, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in the off - season [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - This week, the nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China decreased by 659,900 wet tons to 8,583,400 wet tons, a decrease of 7.14%. The freight of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly, and the tender prices of Philippine mines are high. In Indonesia, the premium of domestic trade ore remains strong, and the prices of wet - process and pyrometallurgical nickel ores are rising [2] - The spot price of refined nickel in China has weakened with the futures market. After the price adjustment, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises has increased slightly, but the overall is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 6,700 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,307 (845) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 283,914 (-744) tons [2] Strategy - The future nickel price is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The strategy is mainly for range operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 178,406 (+40,046) lots, and the open interest was 113,792 (-4,171) lots [4] - The stainless steel price is still mainly affected by the nickel price. On the supply side, the total planned production of stainless steel crude steel in China in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. On the consumption side, the market consumption in March is slowly recovering, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which will support the price [4] - Affected by the decline of the futures market and the price cut of a major stainless steel manufacturer, the retail price in the market has been slightly reduced, and the trading volume is weak. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi market is 14,400 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,350 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 425 - 625 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,094.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]