高库存压制价格，多晶硅低位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. The supply side has an expectation of gradual release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival, the downstream polysilicon demand remains sluggish. In the medium - to - long - term, there is obvious price support, and the overall pattern shows weak supply and demand [3]. - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices makes the cost support of polysilicon weak, the demand expectation from the "rush to export" before April has not been realized, combined with high inventory, the demand transmission in the industrial chain is difficult [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8700 yuan/ton and closed at 8685 yuan/ton, a change of (-20) yuan/ton or (-0.23)% compared with the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2605 main contract at the close was 236662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 15, 2026 was 21976 lots, with no change from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8500 - 8700 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8500 - 8700 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai areas were flat, and the 97 silicon price remained stable [1]. - As of March 12, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week [1]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory [1]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%, and the supply side gradually recovered after the festival, but due to the dry season in the Southwest, the operating rate remained low [1]. Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have risen, providing solid cost support [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 42030 yuan/ton and closing at 41705 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 4.03% compared with the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 34647 (34457 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 5856 lots [3]. - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 42.00 - 50.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 45.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3]. - The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 35.70, with a month - on - month change of 2.50%, the silicon wafer inventory was 28.35GW, with a month - on - month change of - 2.28%. The weekly polysilicon output was 19000.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 1.06%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.98GW, with a month - on - month change of 8.12% [3]. - In March, some large factories have start - up plans. Last week, the first - phase 25,000 - ton capacity of the new 80,000 - ton granular silicon project of Tianhong Ruike was ignited. The supply contraction situation will end, and the output is expected to increase compared with February. However, the demand side has not improved significantly and is expected to remain sluggish. The pattern of oversupply will continue [6]. Strategy - Polysilicon price is expected to continue weak oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7]. Other Product Prices - Silicon wafer prices: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.03 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.33 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell prices: High - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.42 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.41 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.42 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - Component prices: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.74 - 0.76 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.78 (0.00) yuan/W [6].