供需偏紧趋势未改，关注短期情绪变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate destocking trend continues, and the lithium carbonate spot has not shown obvious looseness. The lithium price has rebounded, and the industry has a willingness to stock up at low prices. However, recent macro disturbances are frequent, the geopolitical war has impacted the non - ferrous sector, funds have shifted to energy and chemical industries, and the lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment with wide - range price fluctuations. The trend of industry inventory destocking and strong supply - demand has not changed. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, interval operations are recommended. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 16, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 152,460 yuan/ton and closed at 159,620 yuan/ton, with a 1.75% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 231,813 lots, the holding volume was 310,683 lots (the previous trading day's holding volume was 316,964 lots), and the basis was 3,400 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,393 lots, a change of - 10 lots compared to the previous trading day. [1] - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 150,000 - 163,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 147,000 - 159,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,210 US dollars/ton, a change of - 35 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. [1] - According to SMM statistics, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate this week was 23,426 tons, a 3.7% increase month - on - month. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a 15.1% decrease month - on - month and a 29.7% increase year - on - year. The domestic lithium carbonate output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year. [1] - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons month - on - month. Among them, the smelter inventory was 16,292 tons, a decrease of 1,184 tons month - on - month; the downstream inventory was 45,647 tons, an increase of 1,890 tons month - on - month; other inventories were 37,020 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons month - on - month. The downstream inventory increased, the smelter and other inventories decreased, and the overall destocking pattern was maintained. [1] Strategy - Unilateral: None [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]