美联储议息会议在即，贵金属短期承压中期可期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market will present a pattern of "short - term pressure and prominent medium - to - long - term allocation value" considering the expectations of the upcoming Fed FOMC meeting and the current market environment [3][13] - In the short term, the pressure on the precious metals market is difficult to change due to high - interest rate expectations, a strong US dollar index, and profit - taking and increased liquidity needs [3][13] - In the long term, the allocation value of precious metals is gradually emerging with price corrections, supported by "stagflation risks", weakening US dollar credit, and expectations of loose policies [4][14] - Gold will be the core asset for medium - to - long - term allocation, silver has greater elasticity and industrial demand support, platinum is relatively resistant to decline and may rebound, and palladium may continue to lag behind other precious metals in the medium - to - long term [5][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Expectation Background - The core suppression factor in the precious metals market is the repricing of market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, which is closely related to inflation prospects. The "geopolitical risk → energy cost → inflation expectation" transmission chain is strengthening [8] - The market focus has shifted from "geopolitical hedging" to "the game between inflation expectations and monetary policy". The "slow growth and persistent inflation" situation restricts the Fed's policy choices [10] - As of March 16, the market - expected number of interest rate cuts this year has been significantly reduced, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in December has risen to 64.7%. The upcoming March Fed FOMC meeting will be crucial for the market direction [10] 3 - Month FOMC Meeting Core Concerns Analysis - The three core concerns of the March FOMC meeting are Powell's statement, the adjustment of the Economic Projection Summary (SEP), and the change in the dot plot, which will determine the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's policy path and affect the precious metals market [11] - Political variables add uncertainty to the meeting, including the appeal of the dismissal of Powell's subpoena and the delay of the confirmation process of Trump's nominee for Fed chair [12] Precious Metals: Short - Term Pressure and Medium - to - Long - Term Allocation Value - In the short term, precious metals are under pressure due to high - interest rate expectations, a strong US dollar, and profit - taking and increased liquidity needs. Silver and platinum - group metals have more significant price corrections [13] - In the long term, precious metals' allocation value is emerging, supported by "stagflation risks", weakening US dollar credit, and expectations of loose policies [14] - At the variety level, gold is the core asset for medium - to - long - term allocation, silver has greater elasticity and industrial demand support, platinum may rebound after the macro - pressure eases, and palladium may lag behind [15]