新能源及有色金属日报：铅价下跌之际，下游采购积极性有所回升-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is rated as cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows that primary lead production is resuming, secondary lead production is reducing due to losses, and imported lead arrivals are increasing. On the demand side, the battery start - up rate is rising, but the terminal consumption recovery is weak, and social inventories are continuously accumulating. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of the price stopping its decline. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 16, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.55 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 16,200 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,225 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 16, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,550 yuan/ton and closed at 16,315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 74,012 lots, an increase of 28,081 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 66,049 lots, an increase of 2,368 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,565 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,195 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,450 yuan/ton and closed at 16,405 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the significant decline in lead prices, some battery enterprises made purchases at low prices, and the in - quiry enthusiasm increased compared with last Friday, with the spot market transaction improving regionally. [2] Inventory - On March 16, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 16, the LME lead inventory was 284,575 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can conduct bargain - hunting buying and selling hedging in the range from below 16,500 yuan/ton to nearly 16,850 yuan/ton. If it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector experiences collective inventory reduction next week, it is recommended to focus on bargain - hunting buying hedging. [4]