Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-17 09:37Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: International oil price surges due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, which boosts international corn prices and benefits the domestic market. In the domestic market, the supply of corn from Northeast China has improved, but the remaining grain is decreasing, and the selling pressure risk is reduced. After active replenishment, processing enterprises' inventories have returned to a safe level. With weak downstream demand and profit losses, enterprises mainly maintain rolling replenishment, and prices have loosened. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. The adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction policy may increase the demand for wheat as a feed substitute and weaken the later - stage demand for corn. Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: As corn starch enterprises gradually resume production, the industry's operating rate has increased, and the supply - side pressure has increased. However, the increase in the operating rate is slow, downstream demand has improved, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. The starch market has been oscillating strongly recently, supported by the strong performance of corn [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 19 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 month spread is - 13 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 238809 hands, with a decrease of 3500 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 78333 hands, with a decrease of 130 hands [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2730 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 7 month spread is - 1, with a decrease of 1; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is 242866 hands, with a decrease of 546 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6255 hands, with a decrease of 305 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 454.75 cents/bushel, with a decrease of 12.25 cents/bushel; the total position is 1723308 contracts, with an increase of 105847 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 167722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price of corn is 2452.35 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.72 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2410 yuan/ton, with no change; the CIF price of imported corn is 2085.07 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is - 3.28 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2830 yuan/ton, 3040 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 100 yuan/ton, with an increase of 13 yuan/ton; the price difference between Shandong starch and corn is 540 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat is 2596.94 yuan/ton, with an increase of 14.33 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 737 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 34 yuan/ton, with an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Sowing Area and Yield Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 432.34 million hectares, with an increase of 0.49 million hectares; the predicted yield is 36.93 million tons. In Brazil, the sowing area is 131 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 22.6 million tons. In Argentina, the sowing area is 53 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 7.5 million tons. In China, the sowing area is 301.24 million hectares, with an increase of 0.66 million hectares, and the predicted yield is 44.96 million tons. In Ukraine, the predicted yield is 29 million tons [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of corn in southern ports is 69.6 tons, with a decrease of 19.6 tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 337.7 tons, with a decrease of 6 tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 219 tons, with an increase of 19 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 120.9 tons, with a decrease of 1.00 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.82%, a monthly increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.17% [3]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, with an increase of 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, with a decrease of 0.2 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 tons, with an increase of 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory and Consumption: The inventory days of sample feed corn are 30.06 days, with a decrease of 0.19 days; the deep - processed corn consumption is 126.86 tons, with an increase of 4.91 tons [2]. - Profit: The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 13 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is 120 yuan/ton, with an increase of 24 yuan/ton; in Jilin, it is - 16 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 55.61%, with an increase of 1.53%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.73%, with an increase of 1.21% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.82%, with an increase of 0.23%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.26%, with an increase of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 15.63%, with a decrease of 0.04% [2]. Industry News - As of March 12, the harvesting progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 50%, higher than 42% of the previous week but lower than 72% of the same period last year. The planting progress of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 91%, higher than 82% of a week ago but lower than 97% of the same period last year [2]. - The intensification of the US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which has pushed up freight rates and boosted international corn market prices [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to the weekly consumption of corn and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel [3].