瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic urea market is fluctuating strongly. The international price is at a high level due to the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, and the domestic urea market is affected by market sentiment. However, factory quotes are relatively stable under the influence of the guidance price. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - The agricultural demand has decreased recently, but due to the strong market sentiment, a few dealers are replenishing their stocks. The开工 rate of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and the industrial consumption of urea has increased. The inventory of urea enterprises in most regions has decreased to varying degrees, and the domestic urea enterprise inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short - term [2]. - The domestic urea production has decreased slightly recently. Although there are plans for some enterprises' equipment to stop and resume production this week, considering short - term enterprise failures, the production is expected to have little fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan compared with the previous period; the 5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 244,735 lots, a decrease of 4,869 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 45,545; the exchange warehouse receipts were 8,055, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices in Henan and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 570 US dollars/ton and 645 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 12 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.53%; the enterprise inventory was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons, a decline of 12.79%. The urea enterprise's operating rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02%; the daily urea production was 219,700 tons, unchanged. The urea export volume was 28 tons, a decrease of 32 tons; the monthly urea production was 6,289,610 tons, an increase of 271,170 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54%; the operating rate of melamine was 53.35%, an increase of 3.9%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea was 286 yuan/ton, an increase of 534 yuan. The monthly production of compound fertilizer was 517.99 tons, an increase of 18.45 tons; the weekly production of melamine was 28,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 95.76 tons, a decrease of 14.05 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 12.79%. As of March 12, the port inventory was 18.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons, a decline of 0.53%. The production of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,537,600 tons, a decrease of 300 tons, a decline of 0.02%; the capacity utilization rate was 93.29%, a decrease of 0.02% [2].