瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal price is dragged down by the sharp decline of US soybeans, and the supply pressure in the far - month will increase due to the return of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal to the domestic market. The short - term fluctuation is large, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term. [2] - The rapeseed oil futures price generally maintains a high - level shock recently, and the short - term fluctuation increases. The market is currently trading on the drive of biodiesel demand. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9833 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2485 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. [2] - The 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 134 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 month - to - month spread of rapeseed meal is 30 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan. [2] - The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 233,669 lots, down 11,060 lots; the position of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 621,064 lots, up 1,213 lots. [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 20,286 lots, down 6,825 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 137,909 lots, up 10,052 lots. [2] - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1,125, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2,261, unchanged. [2] - The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 702.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 36.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,400 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,680 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,381.25 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5,219.32 yuan/ton, down 236.25 yuan. [2] - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio is 3.82, down 0.05. [2] - The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 567 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 195 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. [2] - The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,960 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 440 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is - 45 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan. [2] - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is - 100 tons, down 500 tons. [2] - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 20,000 tons, up 5,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 276,500 tons, up 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 57,500 tons, down 23,000 tons. [2] - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 302,000 tons, up 19,000 tons. [2] - The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 52,000 tons, down 70,000 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 104,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons. [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 30.36%, down 4.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 30.35%, down 4.78%. [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.16%, up 6.34%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, up 2.12%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is down 0.5%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 22.78%, up 0.23%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.91%, down 0.5%. [2] 3.8 Industry News - On March 16th, the rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed significantly lower, dragged down by the limit - down of US soybeans and the decline of soybean oil. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract fell 37.30 Canadian dollars or 5.04%, settling at 702.60 Canadian dollars per ton. [2] - The previous market was boosted by the geopolitical conflict, but as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrates the market's export expectations for US soybeans. [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoint Summary - The cancellation of the anti - discrimination tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. [2] - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the previous average expectation of 22.3 million acres. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the rapeseed production in 2026/27 to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year. [2] 3.10 Rapeseed Oil Viewpoint Summary - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, and the international oil price has risen significantly, driving the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to continue to decline. [2] - The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on specific commodities such as palm oil, and the market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten, supporting the palm oil market price. [2] - The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been settled, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in the future, adding supply pressure in the far - month, but the market has already anticipated this, and the impact on the market is limited. [2]