瑞达期货贵金属期货日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market continued its volatile trend. The easing signal from the US Treasury Secretary regarding the passage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz cooled market risk - aversion and oil prices, suppressing the upward movement of the US dollar and marginally boosting the performance of the precious metal market. The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the risk in the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about US inflation, delaying the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and suppressing the unilateral upward space of gold and silver. The US economy shows characteristics of "slowing growth but persistent inflation". The market's expectation of a single interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has led to a convergence of loose bets, which may continue to suppress precious metals in the short term. However, if the US - Iran situation remains tense, the safe - haven premium will support the gold price. Global physical gold ETFs have seen net inflows for nine consecutive months, indicating that institutional funds still have resilience, and precious metals have certain value for dip - buying. It is recommended to conduct short - term range - bound trading and mid - to long - term dip - buying [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1116.20 yuan/gram, down 2.1 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 20308 yuan/kilogram, up 7.00 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 3598.00 hands to 90,930.00 hands, while those of Shanghai Silver increased by 70653.00 hands to 73,981.00 hands. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 67362.00 hands to 146,932.00 hands, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 173852.00 hands to 550,109.00 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold decreased by 102 kilograms to 105315 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver increased by 23055 kilograms to 353,763 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1115.97 yuan, up 1.36 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 20,354.00 yuan, up 339.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 0.23 yuan/gram, up 3.50 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 46.00 yuan/gram, up 332.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.85 tons to 1070.71 tons, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 104.23 tons to 15,355.95 tons. The non - commercial net long positions of gold in CFTC increased by 2987.00 contracts to 163132.00 contracts, and those of silver increased by 1240.00 contracts to 24,578.00 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold decreased by 0.19 tons to 1302.80 tons, and the total annual supply of silver increased by 482.00 tons to 32,056.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 79.57 tons to 1345.32 tons, and the total annual demand for silver decreased by 491.00 tons to 35,716.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.69; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.87, down 0.05. The VIX volatility index was 23.51, down 3.68; the CBOE gold volatility index was 30.56, down 1.75. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.34, up 0.03; the gold - silver ratio was 63.27, up 3.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that after an attack on a military target in Iran's main oil export hub, the US Department of Justice asked a federal judge to reconsider revoking the subpoena for Fed Chairman Powell. Trump hopes European countries, Japan, and South Korea to assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz refused. Trump called on the Fed to hold a "special meeting" to cut interest rates and criticized Fed Chairman Powell. The World Silver Institute reported that the global silver market is expected to face a structural shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with a cumulative deficit of over 800 million ounces in the past five years. The physical silver supply in the London market remains tight. China's annual silver exports increased to about 4244 tons (a 4.35% year - on - year increase), mainly supported by processing trade. The import of non - flake silver powder for photovoltaics increased by nearly 50%, indicating strong domestic demand in the new energy manufacturing sector [2]. 3.6 Key Focus - On March 17 at 22:00, the US Conference Board Leading Index for February; on March 18 at 18:00, the Eurozone CPI monthly and annual rates for February; on March 18 at 20:30, the US PPI monthly and annual rates for February; on March 18 at 22:00, the US factory orders monthly rate for February; on March 19 at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate meeting; on March 19 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims [2].