瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows a significant increase in port inventory, with Brazilian cotton inventory remaining at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory at major ports for imported cotton was 57.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.7% [2]. - The consumption side indicates that China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly in the first two months. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [2]. - The textile industry's "Golden March" demand is slowly starting, and textile enterprises' production is continuing to recover. The current market is in the traditional consumption peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", and it is expected that the short - term cotton price upward trend will remain unchanged [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price was 15,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price was 21,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 214,474 lots, a decrease of 388 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 1,199 lots, an increase of 85 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton was 710,158 lots, a decrease of 1,776 lots; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 14,042 lots, an increase of 317 lots [2]. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 12,482, a decrease of 13; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 307, a decrease of 12 [2]. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 16,821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [2]. Spot Market - China's Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,186 yuan/ton, an increase of 404 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 184 yuan [2]. - China's Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,086 yuan/ton, an increase of 246 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,229 yuan/ton, an increase of 113 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 861,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [2]. - The profit of imported cotton was 2,735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 5.7887 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, a decrease of 3.41 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2]. - The monthly output of cloth was 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $134,124,120, an increase of $18,187,260; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was $125,796,030, an increase of $3,038,700 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 20.11%, a decrease of 1.69 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 20.1%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.96%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 14.07%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat's export data shows that Brazil exported 1.723 million tons of cotton in the first two weeks of March, with a daily average export volume of 173,000 tons, a 37% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 126,000 tons in March of the previous year. The total export volume in March of the previous year was 2.391 million tons [2]. - ICE cotton futures hit a more than seven - month high on Monday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Data showed that speculators reduced their short positions. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 2.34 cents, or 3.55%, to settle at 68.19 cents per pound [2].