冠通期货研究报告：油粕日报：关注近月到港-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, due to Brazil's temporary cancellation of a quarantine measure, Brazilian soybean shipments have returned to normal, and the soybeans will arrive in China to resolve quarantine issues. Although the U.S. soybeans hit the daily limit down overnight, the decline of the domestic market was less than that of the external market due to concerns about near - month arrivals. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to near - month arrivals and the schedule of imported soybean auctions [2]. - For oils, the sharp rise in crude oil has made major biofuel - producing countries eager to act. Policy - related benefits such as Indonesia's B50 and the U.S. new biofuel policy are expected to gradually materialize with high crude oil prices. It is estimated that oils will continue to be strong in the short term, but the changes in the Middle East situation around the end of the month need to be vigilant [2]. Summary by Related Content Soymeal - As of March 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 59.2%, compared with 50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4% [1]. - In the second week of March 2026 (10 working days), Brazil cumulatively shipped 6.5073 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average shipment of 650,700 tons/day, a 15.65% decrease compared to 771,500 tons/day in March last year. It cumulatively shipped 636,400 tons of soymeal, with a daily average shipment of 63,600 tons/day, a 36.95% decrease compared to 100,900 tons/day in March last year [1]. - In the 11th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons (4.20%) from last week and an increase of 2.3181 million tons (73.17%) compared to last year. The soymeal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons (17.51%) from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons (8.16%) compared to last year [1]. Oils - The NOPA reported that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in February was 2.08 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.93 billion pounds and 1.9 billion pounds in January. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in February was 208.785 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 202.73 million bushels and lower than 221.564 million bushels in January [2]. - On March 13, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 910,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and 10,000 tons year - on - year. The rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons month - on - month, and a decrease of 470,000 tons year - on - year. The palm oil inventory was 870,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, 130,000 tons month - on - month, and 440,000 tons year - on - year [2].