冠通期货研究报告：玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡-20260317

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (real estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure for the market rebound. In the medium term, the demand expectation for glass remains weak due to the continued decline in commercial housing sales. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and terminal demand recovery [1]. - The core logic of soda ash is that the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand and high inventory has not improved. Short - term geopolitical risks drive the market rebound, while the rigid demand for soda ash is weak. The short - term price change of soda ash depends on the impact of the geopolitical situation on international energy prices, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to international energy price changes and whether the high inventory of soda ash can be continuously reduced [2]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Glass - Today, the main glass contract opened and closed lower, with an oscillatory intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is contracting, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 466,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest increased by 5,796 lots. The intraday high was 1,106, the low was 1,084, and the closing price was 1,094, down 22 yuan/ton or 1.97% from the previous settlement price [1]. Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, with a weak oscillatory intraday trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band is contracting, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume decreased by 365,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 3,395 lots. The intraday high was 1,254, the low was 1,231, and the closing price was 1,243, down 18 yuan/ton or 1.43% from the previous settlement price [2]. - The total domestic inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.9035 million tons, a decrease of 28,200 tons or 1.46% from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash is 1.0019 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 0.9016 million tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous period [2].