冠通期货研究报告：养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. - The corn fundamentals are still strong, and it is recommended to actively replenish stocks or buy on dips [2]. - For eggs, although the short - term supply and demand are still loose, there is an obvious downward expectation for the inventory in March, and a low - long strategy is suggested [3]. - The pig market is in a stage of bottom - grinding oscillation. The short - term situation is poor, but the far - month contracts may have some support [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast soybean prices are rising rapidly. Some large customers' full - amount stored grains in the production area are being cashed out, increasing the remaining grains in the production area. COFCO's high - price acquisition makes it difficult to store normally. Traders' acquisition prices are generally raised, and the profitability is uncertain. The price may rise in March and reach a turning point in early April [1]. Corn - In the Northeast, the post - festival grain sales progress is slower than usual, and the remaining grain inventory is low. Large - scale purchasing enterprises are increasing their acquisition efforts, pushing up regional prices. However, with the temperature rising, the enthusiasm for grain sales at the grass - roots level is increasing, and the price increase amplitude is narrowing. In Shandong, the arrival volume of corn is low, and enterprises are increasing prices to stimulate supply. The market is bullish, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell, showing the characteristic of "price rising but volume decreasing" [2]. Eggs - In late February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid rise of egg prices. The number of newly - opened laying hens will decrease significantly from March to April 2026, and the inventory will decline from April to May. Feed cost increases are squeezing profits and accelerating capacity clearance [3]. Pigs - The domestic live - pig spot price has dropped to 10.29 yuan/kg, a year - on - year drop of nearly 30%, and the self - breeding and self - raising loss per head exceeds 280 yuan, with continuous losses for 5 weeks. In March, the slaughter is accelerating, but the demand is still weak. The feed cost is rising, and the profitability is deteriorating, forcing short - term capacity clearance. Some predict a slight reduction in the breeding sow inventory in February, and the far - month contracts may have some support, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3][4].