银河期货研究所：白糖日报-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term due to high international oil prices and major producing countries lowering their sugar production forecasts [10][11] - Domestic sugar prices may start to rise earlier but are expected to have a relatively gentle trend considering the current low sugar prices, potential tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, despite the pressure on the supply side during the peak domestic sugar - pressing season [10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,436, down 65 (-1.18%); SR01 closed at 5,569, down 57 (-1.01%); SR05 closed at 5,406, down 66 (-1.21%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - Spot Market: The spot prices in different regions such as Liuzhou, Kunming, and Wuhan showed different degrees of change. The basis in each region also varied, with Liuzhou at 84, Kunming at -76, etc [3] - Inter - month Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 163, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 30, up 1; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 133, down 8 [3] - Import Profit: The quota - free and in - quota import prices from Brazil and Thailand were calculated, and the spreads with Liuzhou, Rizhao, and the futures market were also provided [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - Important Information - As of March 17, 2026, 14 sugar mills in Guangxi had completed the crushing process in the 2025/26 season, 53 less than the same period last year. The total production capacity of the crushed mills was 11.35 tons per day, a year - on - year decrease of 43.5 tons per day. The first round of concentrated crushing is expected to occur in the second half of the week [5] - Brazil exported 72.43 tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of March 2026, with a daily average of 7.24 tons, a 25% decrease compared to the daily average of 9.65 tons in March last year [5] - Egypt extended the commercial sugar import ban until the end of April 2026 to protect domestic producers and regulate the domestic market [6] - As of March 15, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 10.2696 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 549,600 tons (5.6%) [9] - Logical Analysis - Internationally, the sugar production increases in India and Thailand in this season are likely to be lower than market expectations. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has lowered its global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 480,000 tons, and the expected global sugar surplus has been reduced by 410,000 tons. Most global institutions are also lowering their 2026/27 global sugar production forecasts, which supports international sugar prices [10] - Domestically, the domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing season, and the domestic sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low sugar prices, potential tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, domestic sugar prices may start to rise earlier but with a relatively gentle trend [10] - Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar is also expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Sell put options [13] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including Guangxi and Yunnan's monthly inventory, monthly production, Liuzhou's white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, white sugar basis for different months, and Zhengzhou sugar spreads for different months [15][19][23][26][29][31]