美元指数走强短期商品或震荡运行：大宗商品周度报告2026年3月17日-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 5.18% last week, with the energy and chemical sector leading the gain at 9.76%, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. Due to uncertainties in war and the global economic outlook, the energy price fluctuates sharply, and the dollar is strong. The commodity market faces correction pressure and may fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 5.18% last week. The energy and chemical sector led the gain at 9.76%, followed by the agricultural and black sectors with increases of 2.72% and 2.69% respectively. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. The top - rising varieties were fuel oil, PTA, and crude oil, with increases of 19.08%, 14.23%, and 12.94% respectively. The top - falling varieties were tin, apple, and silver, with decreases of 4.97%, 3.08%, and 2.83% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with the energy and chemical and oilseed sectors having sharp fluctuations, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors mainly saw volatility decline. The overall market scale increased significantly last week, with the energy and chemical sector attracting over 40 billion yuan, and only the black sector having a small net outflow of funds [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors 3.2.1 Precious Metals - The unadjusted core CPI annual rate in the US in February was 2.5%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The sector has been suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and continues to oscillate at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decisions of central banks including the Fed this week [2]. 3.2.2 Non - ferrous Metals - The market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the strong US dollar index has put pressure on the sector. The manufacturing PMI in the Northern Hemisphere in February was stable, indicating that the market may enter the peak season more quickly. After the price decline, the downstream spot procurement has improved, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory still put pressure on the sector [2]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up week - on - week, production increased synchronously, and inventory accumulation slowed down significantly, basically reaching an inflection point. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and the molten iron output dropped significantly. After the conference, production will resume quickly, but the poor steel mill profits still limit the recovery space. For raw materials, the domestic arrival volume of iron ore decreased significantly, and the rising oil price provided phased cost support. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a premium to Mongolian coal. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, but the suppression was slightly weak. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.2.4 Energy - Last week, IEA member countries decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest scale in history. However, with the Holmuoz Strait still unable to fully resume opening, resulting in a daily oil transportation gap of over 10 million barrels, the market's bullish sentiment continued to heat up. EIA weekly data showed that crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly declined, indicating that the market is worried that the war will disrupt global trade and drive up the demand for refined oil. Oil prices are expected to remain high before the strait resumes safe passage [3]. 3.2.5 Chemicals - Since the conflict broke out, the futures prices of crude oil and many downstream oil - chemical products have risen significantly. The fundamentals of asphalt have improved marginally recently. The planned production volume of local refineries is at a low level in the same period in recent years, and it may be relatively strong under the release of the catch - up increase momentum. The import of methanol is expected to continue to tighten. The phased decline in domestic supply and the recovery of demand may keep it running strongly. For polyester, the terminal is mainly digesting inventory, and polyester filament inventory has increased. The high cost affects the negotiation of terminal orders, and the downstream recovery may slow down, with negative feedback pressure on the market [3]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products - Over the weekend, Brazil loosened its soybean export inspection policy to some extent. Some large international grain trading companies have resumed export shipments to China. The market is worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and soybean meal have all declined. Under the tense energy situation, the marginal demand for biodiesel has improved. Indonesia has released policy expectations and may restrict the export of palm oil due to the tense energy situation. The oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term, and palm oil may be relatively strong [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around - 0.73%, with a total scale of 34.5334 billion yuan and a 1.61% increase in share. The energy and chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a 14.24% weekly return, with a scale of 3.537 billion yuan and a 5.28% increase in share. The soybean meal ETF (such as the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a 7.74% weekly return, with a scale of 3.062 billion yuan and a 0.42% increase in share. The non - ferrous ETF (such as the Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a 0.10% weekly return, with a scale of 8.37 billion yuan and a 1.36% decrease in share. The silver fund (such as the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a 2.15% weekly return, with a scale of 10.447 billion yuan and no change in share [37].