钢材&铁矿石日报：原料表现偏强，钢价震荡企稳-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.41% with decreasing volume and open interest. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a relatively high level while demand has seasonally improved. Under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and steel prices continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate steadily. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5][39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.58% with decreasing volume and open interest. At present, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand. Coupled with the cost support brought by the strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coils continues to fluctuate steadily. However, the resilience of demand is questionable, and cautious attention should be paid to the price trend under the high - inventory situation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5][39]. - Iron ore: The main contract price of iron ore was strong, recording a daily increase of 1.81% with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the previous favorable factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level. However, under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not sustainable. It is expected that the iron ore price will shift to high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Fiscal policy: In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, mainly reflected in five aspects, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tools, improving the efficiency of transfer payment funds, optimizing the expenditure structure, and strengthening fiscal - financial cooperation [7]. - Power consumption: From January to February 2026, the total social power consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The power consumption of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 7.4%, 6.3%, and 8.3% respectively, and the power consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 2.7% [8]. - Anti - dumping ruling: Ukraine made a positive final ruling on the third sunset review of anti - dumping on steel wire ropes and steel cables originating from China, deciding to continue to levy an anti - dumping duty of 123% on the products involved for five years [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Steel products: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220, 3,200, and 3,341 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,290, 3,220, and 3,311 respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,200. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 70, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [10]. - Iron ore: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 795, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772. The ocean freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 13.64 and 29.73 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.42, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 108.80 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,148 | 0.41 | 3,150 | 3,134 | 592,481 | - 143,412 | 1,549,534 | - 24,530 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | 0.58 | 3,315 | 3,291 | 279,583 | - 12,461 | 1,179,948 | - 3,908 | | Iron ore | - | 816.5 | 1.81 | 819.0 | 804.5 | 210,056 | - 109,973 | 461,728 | 2,876 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - Steel inventory: The report provides charts on the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils [14][15][17]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts on the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate are provided [23][24][27]. - Steel mill production: Charts on the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profitability of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills in China are provided [31][33][35]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to recover seasonally. Supply pressure is increasing as production is active, and inventory is relatively high. Although demand has improved, the subsequent improvement is questionable. With cost support from strong raw materials, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Supply is contracting, and demand is showing signs of support. However, demand resilience is questionable due to downstream contradictions and export pressure. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily with caution [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. Demand improvement is limited due to restricted production and poor profitability of steel mills, while supply is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to shift to high - level oscillation [40].