焦炭日报：震荡偏强：冠通期货研究报告-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "oscillating and slightly bullish" for the coke industry [2] Report's Core View - After the first round of price cuts for coke is fully implemented, the loss - making area of coke enterprises expands. After the important meeting, the iron - making output of steel mills rebounds, increasing the demand for coke. At the macro level, the government work report this year mentions "anti - involution" again, and attention should be paid to subsequent growth - stabilization policies. In general, coke is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short term, and a strategy of buying at low levels should be adopted, while paying attention to the support of the 5/10 - day moving average and the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary According to Related Directory Market Analysis - Coke inventory: Last week, due to production restrictions, the demand of steel mills decreased, causing the coke inventory in steel mills to increase by 162,900 tons to 6.8755 million tons, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. This week, the comprehensive coke inventory decreased slightly by 14,100 tons to 10.5086 million tons [1] - Profit: Last week, the first round of price cuts for coke was implemented, and the coking profit of coke enterprises declined. This week, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide decreased by 20 yuan to - 3 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream demand: During the important meeting, some blast furnaces faced production restrictions. Last week, the capacity utilization rate continued to decline, and the molten iron output further decreased. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 63,900 tons to 2.212 million tons, the lowest in the same period in the past three years [1] - Upstream coking coal: Most coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, and the comprehensive inventory of coking coal has increased slightly [1] - News: From January to February, the national real - estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, and the decline was 6.1 percentage points narrower than that of the whole previous year. The National Financial Regulatory Administration aims to accelerate the establishment of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 16 showed that China's coke output from January to February was 8.255 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [1]