软商品日报：震荡为主-20260317

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as new - year supply contraction supports the market, despite current ample supply, high commercial inventory, high raw material prices, and cautious restocking by spinning mills [1]. - Sugar is in a stage with strong downside support but limited upward drive. A low - buying strategy is recommended due to overall loose supply - demand, especially for international raw sugar, and the influence of import ratios, price differences, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a 300,000 - ton processing trade quota for imported cotton in 2026 with a contract - based application system [1]. - Supply is ample with high commercial inventory. The downstream market is in the traditional peak season with signs of recovery in the cotton yarn market, but spinning mills' immediate profits are poor, leading to cautious restocking [1]. - New - year cotton supply contraction supports the market. The Sino - US negotiation in Paris reached a preliminary consensus on agricultural product procurement and energy cooperation, with China promising to increase imports from the US and the US planning to relax some high - tech product export restrictions [1]. Sugar - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 26.175 million tons, a 10% increase from the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is approaching its end, with more sugar mills in major producing states closing down [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, 540 sugar mills in India started crushing, 7 more than the previous season. Currently, 173 mills are still operating, significantly fewer than 200 at the same time last year. For example, in Maharashtra, as of March 12, 154 out of 210 sugar mills completed the season, crushing 10.3696 million tons of sugar cane and producing about 9.8158 million tons of sugar [2]. - The sugar market is in a supply - demand - loose stage, especially for international raw sugar. The proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is small, the price difference between domestic and international markets widens after the domestic market strengthens, and crude oil price fluctuations affect sugar prices [2].