银河期货农产品日报：苹果日报-20260317

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Although the fundamentals of apples are strong, with low cold - storage apple inventory and high cost of May contracts, the upward momentum and time for the May contract are insufficient due to the high previous price and upcoming position - limit. The market will likely focus on the new - season apple production as the key growing period approaches. With a likely increase in production and more flower buds, the report suggests short - term short - selling of the October contract [5]. Group 3: Market Information Spot Price - Fuji apple price index is 110.41 today, down 0.15 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.84, down 0.06 [2]. - The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 remain unchanged [2]. Futures Price - AP01 is 8622, up 25 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 10118, up 54; AP10 is 8765, up 32 [2]. - The spreads between different contracts have also changed. For example, AP01 - AP05 is - 1496, down 29; AP05 - AP10 is 1353, up 22; AP10 - AP01 is 143, up 7 [2]. Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts has decreased. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 622, down 25; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05 is - 2118, down 54; Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 is - 765, down 32 [2]. Group 4: Market News - As of March 12, 2026, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 499.72 million tons, a decrease of 27.81 million tons from last week and 24.34 million tons from last year, with a decline of 4.6% [7]. - The main apple market in the producing areas is stable. There are many merchants in the producing areas, starting to stock up for Tomb - sweeping Festival. The cold - storage packaging quantity is acceptable, and some cold - storage owners are reluctant to sell. The market arrival has increased, and the mainstream price remains stable [7]. - In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing paper - bagged Fuji in cold storage is stable. There are merchants packaging in cold storage, mainly in the main producing areas. The cold - storage trading volume is small, and foreign traders mainly purchase medium - and small - sized fruits. The number of merchants has increased. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per jin [7]. - In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable. The number of merchants has increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. The supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the procurement is difficult. In recent days, merchants have become more accepting of high prices. The mainstream price of 70 and above paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategy Single - side - It is recommended to exit and wait for the May contract and short - sell the October contract at high prices [6]. Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Options - It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Group 6: Related Attachments - There are multiple graphs in the report, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volume in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume [10][11][14]