铁矿日报：短期扰动因素较多，基本面压力仍存-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate due to supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is difficult to price based on fundamentals. It may be in high - level shock consolidation, and the downward space is limited for now. In the medium - term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with loose supply, decreased demand, and accumulated port inventory [2][4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a strong bias during the day, closing at 816.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 210,000 lots, the open interest was 462,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.294 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and fall into shock consolidation [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder was 793 (unchanged), Super Special powder was 671 (unchanged), and the main swap was 109 (+1.08) US dollars/ton. The swap rose slightly again, and the spot price fluctuated little [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 9.3 yuan/ton, and the basis shrank significantly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 31 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month recoveries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2]. - Demand side: The rhythms of blast furnace maintenance and resumption of production were mismatched. The pig iron output this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills increased. After the Two Sessions, the pig iron output is likely to recover month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the pressured port inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The overall data of exports, inflation and finance released this week are relatively good, and the macro - fundamentals maintain resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of external imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [3]. - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the first quarter of the United States have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft - landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]. Viewpoint Summary - Comprehensively, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, with loose supply, decreased pig iron output, delayed resumption of production, and accumulated port inventory. Under the double disturbances of supply - side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the short - term downward space is limited, and it may fall into high - level shock consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [4].