螺纹日报：震荡偏强：冠通期货研究报告-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" for the rebar market [1] Core Viewpoint - The rebar market is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend, but the upside space depends on whether the demand recovery can drive inventory reduction [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 24,530 lots on Tuesday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day at 592,481 lots. The short - and medium - term moving averages have strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day moving average of 3133, near the 30 - day moving average of 3093, and near the 60 - day moving average of 3110 [1] - Spot: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 102 yuan/ton to the spot price [2] Fundamental Data - Supply: In the week of March 13, 2026, the rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term复产, but the long - term trend was still contraction [3] - Demand: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed verification [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons; total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. There was a large pressure to reduce inventory [3] - Cost and Profit: The rebar price was undervalued, and geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic: The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, sent positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, which strengthened the market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Low rebar price valuation, geopolitical cost increase, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish Factors: Persistent weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow inventory reduction, and bearish capital position structure [6] Short - Term View Summary - The rebar main contract continued to oscillate with a bullish bias with lower trading volume. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. The short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance was at the previous platform. The supply has recovered, and high inventory has put pressure. The demand has recovered seasonally but is weaker than in previous years. The real estate data is still weak, but the cost is supported by Middle East events [6]