FICC日报：4月合约逐步回归现实端交易，关注马士基4月第一周开价-20260317

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The April contract is gradually returning to real - end trading. Pay attention to Maersk's price offer in the first week of April [1] - The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery. It is necessary to focus on the shipping companies' willingness to support prices and actual price adjustments. The volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks and the game between price - support expectations and actual landing prices [6] - For the relatively peak - season contracts in June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 16, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 54,037.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 58,796.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 contract closed at 1938.80, EC2605 at 2175.00 points, EC2606 at 2394.40, EC2607 at 2500.60, EC2608 at 2375.00, EC2609 at 1716.80, EC2610 at 1568.00, and EC2512 at 1814.00 [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 13, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1618 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2249 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3111 US dollars/FEU. On March 16, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. For 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 6 ships with a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered; for ships over 17,000 TEU, 1 ship with a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [4] - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March was 308,200 TEU. The capacities in weeks 12, 13, and 14 were 310,600, 282,100, and 331,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 326,200 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 15, 16, 17, and 18 were 331,300, 304,200, 329,000, and 340,600 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 311,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 19, 20, 21, and 22 were 324,000, 313,100, 318,400, and 291,900 TEU respectively. There were 8 blank sailings in March (3 by the OA alliance, 1 by the Gemini alliance, and 4 by the MSC/PA alliance) and 1 TBN (by the OA alliance), 3 TBNs in April, and 6 TBNs in May [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies tried to support prices in the off - season. Maersk offered a price of 2200 - 2300 US dollars/FEU in the second week of the second half of March (equivalent to 1600 - 1700 points of SCFIS), MSC's online quote in the last week of March was 3040 US dollars/FEU (300 US dollars/FEU higher than the first week of the second half of March), and ONE's price in the second half of March was between 2435 - 2755 US dollars/FEU. Most shipping companies announced emergency fuel surcharges, but it is expected that the impact on the disk valuation is relatively controllable [6] - Some ships operating in the Middle East were transferred to the European line, increasing the supply - side pressure and potentially affecting the European line freight rates [6] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports from China due to concerns about future inflation, which may drive up China's export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by excessive increases in oil prices [7] 3.6 Strategy - Single - side: None - Arbitrage: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [9]