塑料日报：低开后震荡运行：冠通期货研究报告-20260317

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The situation in the Middle East boosts the energy - chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the refinery load reduction will further increase, and the plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future. Pay attention to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the situation in the Middle East [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 17, the change of parking devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory continued to be destocked and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded. The new production capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA have been put into operation in January 2026, and no new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, but the downstream has a resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8340 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8616 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8496 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.58%. The position decreased by 11231 lots to 333716 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with the increase or decrease ranging from - 200 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 8370 - 8970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 10550 - 11310 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8370 - 9490 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 17, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% week - on - week. The downstream gradually resumed production but has not returned to the pre - festival level, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 0.5 tons to 86.5 tons week - on - week, 2 tons higher than the same period of last lunar year, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $103/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $50/ton to $1200/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also increased by $50/ton to $1200/ton week - on - week [4]